SVA will shortly release our 2016 Asia Risk Assessment, which we hope you will find of interest. If you would like to receive a complimentary copy, please email us at [email protected].
Our report outlines risks of particular concern to foreign investors and business leaders. The report has individual chapters on China, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Myanmar, Malaysia and a section on Terrorism. Some key conclusions in the report include:
China: “An expanding anti-corruption campaign, intensified political division and a slowing economy raise risks for foreign businesses operating in China in 2016.”
Hong Kong: “A deeply polarised political environment, a weaker economy prompting a probable fall in property prices, and a failure to innovate will erode standards in 2016.”
Macau: “The central Chinese government in 2015 formally withdrew its acquiescence to outflows of capital through Macau, causing a decline in revenues and an increase in investigations, transforming the commercial climate.”
Taiwan: “Presidential elections in January will result in a new government in Taiwan less friendly to China, leading to tensions and a weaker economy.”
Indonesia: “Investors in Indonesia will face increased political uncertainty and economic weakness, although the outlook should not worsen dramatically.”
Japan: “Japanese politics should prove relatively stable in 2016, even though the economy is not reviving as hoped and a continued shift towards a more assertive defence policy may add to regional tensions.”
Malaysia: “Levels of risk will rise in Malaysia in 2016, as political uncertainty nurtures artificially created racial tensions, and as economic weakness could prompt the government to impose capital controls to prevent a financial crisis.”
Myanmar: “Myanmar should continue its transition in 2016, with the National League for Democracy (“NLD”) taking office, albeit in partnership with the army.”
Thailand: “The political environment is growing more complex as the military tightens control ahead of the passing of the King, presenting risks in 2016.”
Vietnam: “Vietnam faces a leadership change in 2016, meaning a new team will handle the South China Sea dispute and an improving economy. That said, the collective nature of its systems suggests that policies will not vary wildly.”
Terrorism in Asia: “Terrorism remains a concern in the Asia-Pacific region, with traditional venues at risk, as well as China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the Malay-speaking world. A further concern could be a spectacular attack on a soft target such as a mall in Australia or a casino in Macau.”
If we can be of assistance to your organisation to mitigate risk, conduct an investigation or respond – swiftly and effectively to a crisis, please do not hesitate to contact us.